LEEDS ECONOMY HANDBOOK

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Produced by Economic Policy Team Leeds City Council | [email protected] eeds Labour Market LEEDS ECONOMY HANDBOOK August 2016
LEEDS ECONOMY HANDBOOK December 2016

LEEDS LABOUR MARKET eeds Labour Market

Produced by Economic Policy Team Leeds City Council | [email protected]

LEEDS LABOUR MARKET CONTENTS Labour demand Employment Earnings Labour supply Population Labour force Self-employment Occupations Unemployment Working age benefits Workless households Vacancies BACKGROUND TO THE DATA Data on the Leeds labour market is available from two main sources: Official government statistics: The economic status of all Leeds residents is available from the Annual Population Survey (APS, which replaced the Labour Force Survey), while workplace-based employee data is provided by the Annual Business Inquiry (ABI). A subset of the unemployed - benefit claimants - is available on a monthly basis. Comparable data for other cities is available from these sources. The Experian Business Strategies Economic Database provides a range of economic data which is consistent with Experian Business Strategies' macroeconomic and regional forecasts. The data consists of employment, output, productivity, and population estimates and forecasts and other labour market information. These are provided for the Leeds City Region, Yorkshire and Humber region, counties and local authority districts within the region. LABOUR DEMAND EMPLOYMENT Spatial comparisons: The only data currently available for comparing the major economic centres is the BRES, which covers employees only. Data is available for the period 2009-2014. Time period comparisons: an analysis of the last ten years and projections for the next 10 years are available from Experian Business Strategies. Data is available for the districts and counties, Leeds City Region, the region and the UK. The table below provides the latest total employment estimates for Leeds, from the different data sources. Latest total employment estimated in Leeds MD, ‘000s Resident employees

APS

337

(Sep 2015)

Resident Self Employed

APS

47

(Sep 2015)

Employees in Leeds

EBS

417

(2015)

Self-Employed

EBS

63

(2015)

APS: Aged 16+

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SPATIAL COMPARISONS: EMPLOYEES ONLY 2010--2015 For the period 2010 to 2015: o Employee jobs in Leeds grew by 34,200 – a 8.7% increase. In comparison, the increase in West Yorkshire was 6.4%, the City Region 6.1% and in Yorkshire and the Humber 5.0%. For GB it increased by 7.3% and in the Core Cities as a whole by 7.1%. o

The ten Core Cities, which include Leeds, gained 198,000 jobs.  Manchester gained 39,900, Leeds 34,200, Birmingham 33,600.  Liverpool gained 7,600, Sheffield 9,100, Cardiff 11,700.

The table below shows the increase in net jobs for each of the areas.

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THE MAJOR EMPLOYMENT CENTRES • Outside London, 16 centres in Great Britain had more than 150,000 employees in 2015. • Leeds with 429,800 employees was the second largest after Birmingham (with 490,800). • The other key centres are Glasgow (399,200), Manchester (348,900) and Edinburgh (318,200). Between 2010 and 2015 • •

All 16 centres showed an increase over the period, ranging from 12.9% in Manchester and 0.4% in Bradford. The charts below show employment change between 2010 and 2015.

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DIVERSITY 2016 The diversity rankings below are a measure of how the industrial structure of a particular location mirrors the structure of Great Britain as a whole. • • •

In 2016 Birmingham, Sheffield and Leeds were the most diverse of the 14 major employment centres outside of London. Leeds has consistently ranked in the three most diverse locations. It emphasizes the fact that Leeds has retained its manufacturing strength as well as consolidating its position a major centre for finance and business services.

City Rank City Rank Birmingham 1 Liverpool 8 Sheffield 2 Newcastle 9 Leeds 3 Bradford 10 Glasgow 4 Nottingham 11 Bristol 5 Leicester 12 Cardiff 6 Edinburgh 13 Aberdeen* 7 Manchester 14 * The energy sector was excluded from the analysis, hence the reason for this ranking SECTOR ANALYSIS – RANKINGS AND REGIONAL STRENGTH From the sheer size of the employment markets in Birmingham and Leeds, one would expect them to dominate any sector rankings based purely on size. Leeds accounted for 32% of total employees in the Leeds City Region. Sector

2015 employees

Total

429,800

Knowledge intensive Low carbon Digital ONS Digital LCC Export intensive Creative DCMS 2014 Creative DCMS all

203,400 10,000 11,000 25,200 84,000 21,300 36,400

Manufacturing Engineering Other mfrg Environmental technologies Life science & healthcare ONS Medical & healthcare Scientific tech mfr ONS

% of WY

% of LCR

% of Y&H

42

32

19

% of Core Cities 14

2 5 2 1 1 1 1

47 45 59 60 44 60 48

36 31 45 48 34 47 38

22 14 31 32 20 34 25

14 15 17 16 18 18 16

28,600 10,600 17,800

2 10 1

26 29 25

20 23 19

11 11 11

17 14 20

13,800 32,600 30,200 7,700

3 3 4 13

44 41 40 27

31 31 30 23

19 17 16 12

16 11 10 16

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Rank outside London 2

Scientific tech servs ONS Print & publishing Publish & broadcasting ONS

23,500 3,400 15,600

7 4 1

64 31 60

46 27 50

28 19 34

12 18 21

Construction Construction LCC

18,100 40,600

2 3

42 44

31 34

17 20

16 15

376,400

2

44

34

20

14

Distribution Motor trades Wholesale Retail Food & drink Accom & food services Transport & storage

78,600 6,000 16,600 31,500 39,400 24,500 17,900

2 2 2 3 3 6 3

38 34 34 36 35 44 37

27 26 27 26 25 29 28

16 14 16 15 14 16 16

13 16 16 12 13 12 14

Info & communication Software DCMS

16,100 10,100

2 2

59 64

48 50

32 36

15 18

Fin & bus servs Finance & insurance Other bus services Legal activities Property Prof, scientific & technical Bus admin & support

139,000 26,200 112,700 7,500 6,800 46,900 59,000

1 2 1 2 4 1 1

55 55 56 69 45 60 54

44 44 44 57 35 46 43

29 33 28 38 22 31 27

18 18 17 14 13 18 17

Public admin, educ, defence Education Public admin & defence Health

106,800 39,400 15,500 51,100

3 2 7 3

38 39 37 38

29 29 30 28

16 17 15 16

12 13 10 11

19 18 21

13 12 15

Total services

Tourism ONS 42,800 5 47 33 Hospitality economy 42,000 5 42 30 Culture, recreation & personal 18,800 2 48 36 Rank: Leeds ranking, excluding London boroughs, in terms of number of employees %: % of employees in …. sector working in Leeds Source: BRES 2015

Although employment growth in some of these sectors may not be as high as some of the lower ranked cities, it does show that Leeds has retained the critical mass needed to prosper.

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EMPLOYMENT FORECASTS At the heart of Experian Business Strategies’ capability to generate detailed local level forecasts lies the Integrated Regional Sectoral Model of the UK. This is constructed on the basis that each UK region and each sector of the economy is treated as an economic entity in its own right, for which forecasts can be made using historic relationships between variables. National and regional forecasts The starting point for the forecasts is a wide range of historical economic data collected at a highly disaggregated level and covering all major economic indicators. The majority of this data come from ONS and OPCS. In order to provide the best possible estimates of current economic conditions, Experian Business Strategies make use of up-to-the-minute survey data. These data come from joint surveys undertaken with the CBI (on manufacturing industry), GfK (on consumer behaviour) and other publicly available surveys (such as from the Chambers of Commerce, Construction Confederation, Trade Indemnity, Halifax etc.). County forecasts County level forecasts are prepared once national and regional forecasts are finalised. The key feature at this geographical level is that far fewer reliable economic data are available. Business Strategies make use of employment data, drawn from the Annual Business Inquiry (ABI), and population data. The basic forecasts are built around ‘shift-share’ models. This means that, in broad terms, the historical performance of a given county’s economy is interpreted in terms of that county’s share of the regional economy they belong to. All totals must sum to regional totals. Local Authority level forecasts Forecasts at the local authority level have much in common with their county counterparts. Where the county level forecasts are determined in a shift-share setting relative to the performance of its “parent-region”, the LA is determined using the performance of its’ “parent-county”. For internal consistency the UA/LA forecasts are constrained to the county level numbers.

This section looks at the last 10 years and projections for the next 10 years for total employment, with data from the Experian Business Strategies forecasting model (June 2015). THE RECESSION • • •

Total employment in Leeds peaked at 470,000 in 2006. It fell to 456,000 in 2010 – a decline of 14,000 over 4 years. Employment is then expected to increase, reaching the 2006 levels by 2014.

TOTAL EMPLOYMENT 

Total employment in Leeds in 2015 was estimated at 474,000.



Between 2005 and 2015, 12,600 net additional jobs were created in Leeds. This was behind Manchester (60,500), Liverpool (26,800), Nottingham (22,000), Wakefield (16,000) and Bristol (15,900). During the next decade, Leeds is expected to account for 25% of net additional jobs in the Y&H region (39,300 out of 159,000). Between 2015 and 2025 Leeds is expected to have the largest increase in jobs of cities in GB, just ahead Birmingham.

 

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EMPLOYMENT CHANGE IN MAJOR CITIES The table below shows employment change for cities outside London with 150,000+ in employment in 2015. • •

nd

Outside London, Leeds was the 2 largest employment centre with 474,000 in employment in 2015 Leeds and Birmingham are both expected to see employment rise by almost 40,000 in the next decade.

(‘000) Birmingham Leeds Glasgow Manchester Edinburgh Bristol Liverpool Sheffield Nottingham Cardiff Bradford Newcastle Aberdeen Leicester Kirklees Wakefield

Change 2005-15 2015-25 6 38 13 39 4 31 61 32 9 35 16 35 27 17 3 20 22 21 10 23 -1 14 1 12 12 14 -3 14 -3 12 16 7

2015 549 474 442 437 354 328 288 277 237 231 217 204 202 196 170 162

% change 2005-15 2015-25 1 7 3 8 1 7 16 7 2 10 5 11 10 6 1 7 10 9 5 10 -1 7 1 6 7 7 -1 7 -2 7 11 4

PERCENTAGE CHANGE IN TOTAL EMPLOYMENT

Employment change (%) 2005-2015

2015-2015

10.00 8.00 6.00 4.00 2.00 0.00 Leeds

LCR

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Y&H

Core Cities

UK

2005 31,070 3,305 2,520 1,091 461 1,442

(‘000) UK Core Cities Yorks and Humber West Yorkshire Leeds Leeds City Region

2015 33,672 3,467 2,570 1,122 474 1,480

2025 36,130 3,735 2,728 1,200 513 1,578

Change 05-15 15-25 2,601 2,458 162 268 50 159 30 79 13 39 38 98

% change 05-15 15-25 8.4 7.3 4.9 7.4 2.0 6.2 2.8 7.0 2.7 8.3 2.6 6.7

The table below shows Leeds share of total employment and employment change for each of the areas. •

Over the next decade Leeds is expected to account for 50% of jobs created in West Yorkshire, 40% of those in the Leeds City Region, 25% of those in Y&H and 15% of those in the Core Cities.

(%)

2005 14% 18% 42% 32%

Core Cities Yorks and Humber West Yorkshire Leeds City Region

2015 14% 18% 42% 32%

2025 14% 19% 43% 33%

Change 05-15 15-25 8% 15% 25% 25% 41% 50% 33% 40%

COMPONENTS OF CHANGE •

In Leeds total employment increased by 12,600 between 2005 and 2015, with a 39,300 increase for 2015 and 2025. Employee numbers fell slightly between 2005 and 2015 and is expected to increase by 30,000 between 2015 and 2025. Self-employment showed a 16,000 increase between 2005 and 2015 and is expected to show a 10,000 increase between 2015 and 2025. The table below shows the change in the components of employment for Leeds and the region.

• • • :

2015 Total Employees Self Employment Total Employment

410,300 63,600 473,900

Leeds 2005-2015 Actual % change change ('000) -3 -1 16 34 13 3

2015-2025 Actual % change change ('000) 30 7 10 15 39 8

Y&H 2005-2015 2015-2025 Actual % Actual % change change change change ('000) ('000) -36 -2 119 5 86 34 39 12 50 2 159 6

SECTOR GROWTH •

During the last decade, employment growth in finance & business services in Leeds was on par with the UK growth, but higher than Y&H and Leeds City Region. Over the next decade, it is expected to be higher than these areas.



Over the last decade, finance & business services grew by 26,600, compared with an overall net total employment increase of 12,600. Over the next decade it is forecast to account for 43% of the growth.



Throughout the last decade, Leeds accounted for 38% of the region's growth in finance & businesses services. During the next decade it is expected to account for 34%.

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Employment in manufacturing declined 17% in the last decade to 33,400. During the next decade it is likely to fall by 3%, lower than the Y&H region, the Leeds City Region and the UK.



Public administration employment is expected to increase by 4% over the next decade in Leeds, slightly lower than the other locations considered. % change

Leeds 2015 No

Manufacturing Construction Wholesale/retail Transport/ storage Accom/food servs Info & comms Finance/ bus servs Public Admin Other services TOTAL (incl other)

33,400 31,700 60,000 19,700 40,500 16,900 138,600 112,000 12,000 473,900

2005-15

-17 -17 -13 17 3 -3 24 -1 3

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LCR 2015-25

--3 14 6 4 12 6 12 6 9 8

2005-15

--10 -13 -8 16 -1 -2 20 5 -7 3

Y&H

2015-25

-6 15 5 5 11 7 10 6 9 7

2005-15

-11 -11 -7 21 -3 -2 17 6 -11 2

UK

2015-25

-8 15 4 5 11 9 10 7 8 6

2005-15

-16 1 -1 9 14 14 24 11 2 8

2015-25

-7 15 5 5 12 7 11 7 9 7

EMPLOYMENT GROWTH AND PRODUCTIVITY IN LEEDS For the major sectors in Leeds, the chart below shows total employment and productivity growth.

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EARNINGS The Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings (ASHE) is based on a 1% sample of employee jobs taken from HM Revenue & Customs PAYE records. ASHE does not cover the self-employed nor does it cover employees not paid during the reference period. . The charts below show the gross median weekly pay for full-time workers – by place of residence and workplace.

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KEY POINTS FOR GROSS WEEKLY EARNINGS IN 2016: • • •

Median earnings for people working in Leeds were £451 a week (+/- 2.3%) compared with £441 (+/2.3%) for Leeds residents in work. For the bottom 10% of earners, earnings of people working in Leeds was £154 a week (+/- 5.7%) compared with £144 (+/- 6.5%) for working residents. For most categories earnings of those working in Leeds were higher than for those residing in Leeds. Gross Weekly Earnings (£), 2016 Leeds Residents in Work Median

Working in Leeds

Bottom 10%

Top 10%

Median

Bottom 10%

Top 10%

Male Full-time

575

326

1,096

575

328

1,150

Male part-time

151





159





Female full-time

469

288

810

479

293

860

Female part-time

189

56



188

55



Male

534

248

1,053

534

247

1,091

Female

354

107

729

374

112

770

Full-time

529

306

976

532

309

1,047

Part-time

180

50



180

50



All people +/-

441

144

902

451

154

927

2.3%

6.5%

7.9%

2.3%

5.7%

8.6%

Source: Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings, 2016 KEY POINTS FOR GROSS HOURLY PAY IN 2016: • •

Median gross hourly pay for people working in Leeds were £12.49 an hour (+/- 2.6%) compared with £12.12 (+/- 2.6%) for Leeds residents in work. For the bottom 10% of earners, gross hourly pay of people working in Leeds was £7.41 an hour (+/0.7%) compared with £7.36 (+/- 0.7%) for working residents.

Gross Hourly Pay (£), 2016 Leeds Residents in Work Median

Bottom 10%

Working in Leeds Top 10%

Median

Bottom 10%

Top 10%

Male Full-time

13.94

8.06

29.11

14.20

8.25

29.56

Male part-time

7.81

5.97



8.07

6.70



Female full-time

12.77

7.89

22.97

13.09

7.95

23.87

Female part-time

9.03

7.00



9.00

6.99



Male

13.33

7.50

28.51

13.79

7.68

29.13

Female

10.97

7.25

22.85

11.20

7.28

22.92

Full-time

13.53

7.99

26.54

13.75

8.15

27.82

Part-time

8.68

6.86



8.83

6.85

All people

12.12

7.36

25.28

12.49

7.41

25.76

2.6%

0.7%

8.4%

2.6%

0.7%

7.7%

+/-

Source: Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings, 2016 Produced by Economic Policy Team Leeds City Council | [email protected]

21.13

COMPARISON OF GROSS MEDIAN WEEKLY EARNINGS FOR FULL-TIME WORKERS WITH OTHER MAJOR EMPLOYMENT CENTRES The graph below shows average weekly median earnings for the major employment centres for Full-time workers: • •

th

Leeds had the 4 highest earnings for residents in work; Inner London, Edinburgh, Cardiff and Bristol were higher th Leeds had the 8 highest earnings by place of work.



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• • •

Kirklees, Calderdale and York were the only locations where residential earnings were larger than workplace earnings Of the 19 areas, Leeds had the 5th smallest difference. For Leeds, the difference was £4 in 2016 compared with £21 in 2015.

(£)

Difference between FT residential and workplace earnings 2016 Difference (£) 2015 Working in Residing in 2016

Calderdale Kirklees York Cardiff Leeds Bradford Sheffield Bristol Edinburgh Newcastle Wakefield Liverpool Glasgow Nottingham Hull Birmingham Leicester Manchester Inner London

502 480 505 533 532 477 513 537 569 518 497 521 548 480 494 544 488 546 726

521 495 510 531 529 474 505 527 560 508 480 497 524 448 454 497 436 468 653

-19 -15 -4 1 4 4 8 10 10 10 17 24 24 32 40 47 52 78 74

-15 -24 -1 -7 21 20 11 23 20 21 15 26 23 44 25 44 60 51 64

WY Y&H GB

505 498 540

503 498 541

2 -

12 6

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LABOUR SUPPLY This section initially looks at population and the labour force for Leeds. It then looks at unemployment, selfemployment, occupational structure and the growth of commuting into Leeds MD. POPULATION In November 2011, ONS published details of an improved methodology for estimating long-term immigration to local authorities in England and Wales. This methodology did not change the total immigration estimates, but gave better estimates of the distribution of migrants at local authority level. ONS published a set of indicative mid-year based long-term immigration estimates for 2006-2010 as well as indicative population estimates incorporating the improved methods. ONS has used these improved indicative population estimates as the basis for the 2010-based SNPPs, which were published in March 2012. ONS intends to rebase both the population estimates and SNPPs utilising the 2011 Census data later in the year. The analysis of the 2011 Census shows that Leeds has a population of 751,500 living in 320,600 households. The population estimate is significantly lower than the indicative population estimate of 780,925 published by ONS in November 2011. In September 2012, ONS published interim 2011-based sub-national population projections for 2011 to 2021. These showed a population of 751,000 in 2011 and 840,000 in 2021, an increase of 89,000. In May 2014 ONS published 2012-based projections. For 2014 to 2024 these showed an increase of 49,000. The decrease is mainly accounted for by the projected reduction in internal and international migration. In May 2016 ONS published 2014-based projections. For 2016 to 2026 these showed an increase of 47,000

REGIONAL POPULATION CHANGE • •

Over the period 2016 to 2026, total population in Y&H is expected to increase by 241,000 (4% increase) and working age population by 14,000 (a 0.4% increase) Leeds is expected to account for 19% of the population increase in Yorkshire & the Humber and 6% of the working age population

• •

For the Leeds City Region these population increases are expected to be 5% and 2% respectively. Leeds is expected to account for 29% of the population increase in LCR and 48% of the working age population



Within West Yorkshire, Leeds is expected to have marginally higher overall population growth and working age population growth. Leeds is expected to account for 38% of the population increase in West Yorkshire and 53% of the working age population



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Total population change 2026 2036 % change (‘000) (‘000) 2016-26 2016-36 Y&H 5,415 5,656 5,856 +4 +8 W Yorks 2,294 2,417 2520 +5 +10 Bradford 534 557 577 +4 +8 Calderdale 209 220 229 +5 +9 Kirklees 437 464 486 +6 +11 Leeds 779 826 867 +6 +11 Wakefield 334 350 361 +5 +8 S Yorks 1,381 1,446 1,502 +5 +9 Barnsley 241 257 269 +7 +12 Doncaster 305 310 313 +2 +3 Rotherham 261 270 276 +3 +6 Sheffield 574 609 643 +6 +12 N Yorks 812 840 864 +4 +6 Craven 56 57 58 +2 +5 Hambleton 90 92 94 +2 +4 Harrogate 157 160 162 +2 +3 Richmondshire 52 52 51 -1 -2 Ryedale 53 55 57 +4 +7 Scarborough 108 109 110 +1 +2 Selby 87 93 97 +7 +12 York 209 223 235 +7 +13 Humberside 929 966 953 970 +3 +4 East Riding 339 352 360 +4 +6 Hull 259 264 268 +2 +3 N E Lincs 160 162 163 +1 +2 N Lincs 170 176 179 +3 +5 Leeds CR 3,043 3,206 3,342 +5 +10 London 8,832 9,893 10,741 +12 +22 Core Cities 4,558 4,865 5,144 +7 +13 England 55,219 59,135 62,404 +7 +13 Source: ONS, 2014-based population projections (Produced May 2016) 2016 (‘000)

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Population of working age (16-64) 2026 2036 % change (‘000) (‘000) 2016-26 2016-36 Y&H 3,403 3,417 3,391 W Yorks 1,457 1,485 1,494 +2 +3 Bradford 332 338 339 +2 +2 Calderdale 131 132 130 +1 -1 Kirklees 274 281 283 +3 +3 Leeds 511 526 538 +3 +5 Wakefield 209 209 205 -1 -2 S Yorks 878 890 890 +1 +1 Barnsley 151 154 153 +2 +2 Doncaster 190 185 178 -3 -6 Rotherham 161 159 155 -1 -3 Sheffield 377 393 403 +4 +7 N Yorks 496 485 468 -2 -6 Craven 32 30 29 -6 -11 Hambleton 53 50 47 -5 -12 Harrogate 93 88 81 -5 -13 Richmondshire 33 30 28 -8 -15 Ryedale 31 30 28 -3 -8 Scarborough 63 59 56 -6 -11 Selby 54 54 53 -1 York 138 143 146 +4 +6 Humberside 572 966 558 539 -2 -6 East Riding 200 194 186 -3 -7 Hull 170 166 164 -2 -3 N E Lincs 98 95 91 -3 -7 N Lincs 104 102 98 -2 -6 Leeds CR 1,925 1,954 1,956 +2 +2 London 6,019 6.597 7,013 +10 +17 Core Cities 3,046 3,172 3,283 +4 +8 England 34,842 35,892 36,392 +3 +4 Source: ONS, 2014-based population projections (Produced May 2016) 2016 (‘000)

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LEEDS POPULATION STRUCTURE Leeds is the second largest Metropolitan District in England with a population of 779,000 in 2016. It is expected to grow to 826,000 over the next decade. The age and gender structure is shown below. Population in Leeds MD, ‘000s 2016 0-15

Male 75

16-24

2026

Change 2014-24

Female 72

Male 83

59

61

60

62

1

1

25-34

58

57

60

56

2

-1

35-44

49

49

52

53

3

3

45-54

49

50

44

46

-5

-4

55-64

38

40

45

47

7

7

65+

54

67

63

76

10

9

TOTAL

383

396

408

418

25

779

Female 78

826

Source: ONS, 2014-based population projections (Produced May 2016)

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Male 8

Female 6

22 47

ECONOMIC ACTIVITY AND EMPLOYMENT RATES The graph below shows the change in economic activity and employment rates for Leeds from 2006. Care should be used in interpreting the data because it is sample based and the two series have a 2% confidence interval. • •

The economic activity rate is the percentage of the working age population who are in work or unemployed. Employment rate is the percentage of the economic active population in Leeds who are in work.

The graph show: • the rates peaking in 2006 • over the last year, the activity rate has increased by 0.2% • the employment rate showed a steady fall from its peak in 2006, with an upturn from 2014

Source: Annual Population Survey: Aged 16-64

The Leeds, Leeds City Region and GB rates for the year to June 2016 were: • the Leeds economic activity rate was 77.3%+/- 2.3%, while that for the LCR was 76.7% +/- 1.0% and GB was 77.9 +/- 0.2% • the Leeds employment rate was between 73.3% +/- 2.5%, with the LCR rate 72.3% +/- 1.0% and the GB rate at 73.8 +/- 0.2%

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SELF EMPLOYMENT Data on self-employment is available from two sources: • •

Residents self-employed: Annual Population Survey - a small sample which can produce erratic estimates Self-employed working in Leeds: Experian Business Strategies (Winter 2014)

The number of people self-employment is expected to increase over the next decade from 61,900 to 66,900. Estimates of self-employment APS EBS

OCCUPATIONS

2004 31,900 2005 36,300 2006 41,300 2007 35,900 2008 39,700 2009 36,000 2010 47,400 2011 38,400 2012 37,600 2013 40,100 2014 40,100 2015 (Sep) 46,700 2024 APS: Self-employed aged 16+; December Source: APS and EBS

48,800 47,900 51,400 51,300 50,200 52,200 55,100 56,300 58,300 58,000 61,900 66,900

Data on the distribution of employed Leeds residents by type of occupation is available from two sources: • •

The 2011 Census of Population which recorded a total of 355,200 Leeds residents in employment. The APS/LFS suggested that 384,000 Leeds residents were in employment in 2011, with 398,800 in March 2014. Occupations of Leeds MD residents in employment (% in each group) SOC 2010

Census 2011 Number

APS/LFS

%

2011 %

2014 %

Managers and senior officers

33,700

10%

8%

8%

Professional occupations

65,800

19%

20%

22%

Associate Professional and technical

46,600

13%

14%

15%

Admin and Secretarial

42,800

12%

13%

9%

Skilled

36,000

10%

10%

9%

Personal service occupations

32,400

9%

9%

9%

Sales and customer services

33,500

9%

8%

11%

Plant and machine operatives

23,300

7%

6%

6%

Elementary occupations

41,100

12%

12%

12%

355,200

100%

100%

100%

Source: APS/LFS and Census of Population 2011

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UNEMPLOYMENT The total number of people who are unemployed is estimated from the Annual Population Survey (former Labour Force Survey). This can also be viewed as: Unemployment Benefit Claimants; plus people defined as unemployed by the APS, but not eligible for Unemployment Benefit. In addition there are the hidden unemployed: some of those on Incapacity Benefit and Severe Disability Allowance who may be reassessed as capable of work; and people who classify themselves as inactive but are on the border between active and inactive. APS-based Unemployment Rate • ONS publishes one unemployment rate, which conforms to the International Labour Organisation definition of unemployment. The rate relates the numbers unemployed to the number of residents economically active, and is available down to the local authority level. These rates are available from the Annual Population Survey. • At the local authority level, ONS produces estimates from its work on experimental statistics. These are used instead of the standard data available from the APS Claimant Rates and Proportions • Claimant Count now includes Jobseeker's Allowance plus out-of-work Universal Credit claimants • At the local authority level, ONS publishes Claimant Rates (Claimants divided by the economically active aged 16+) and Claimant Proportions (Claimants divided by population of working age (16-64). • For wards and SOAs ONS published Claimant Proportions Worklessness • •

Working age benefits: A proxy for worklessness is available from the DWP 100% statistics on “Key Working Age Benefits”. This includes those claiming any of: Job Seekers Allowance; Employment & Support Allowance and Incapacity Benefits; other income related benefits Workless households: analysis on the Annual Population Survey giving number of households, people of working age and children

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UNEMPLOYMENT IN MAJOR CITIES: MARCH 2016 Unemployment in Leeds was 25,900 in March 2016, while the claimant count was 11,815. th nd Of the 14 major cities, Leeds had the 4 highest number of claimants and 2 highest unemployed. Unemployment in major cities Birmingham Leeds Glasgow Sheffield Bradford Manchester Liverpool Edinburgh Bristol Newcastle Kirklees Cardiff Nottingham Leicester • •

Unemployment (ILO) 46,000 25,900 25,300 21,400 20,100 18,700 16,800 14,400 13,400 12,600 12,600 12,300 12,200 11,400

Claimants 29,960 11,815 13,665 9,355 9,170 10,865 11,865 5,380 5,146 5,455 5,815 5,715 7,265 4,750

Unemployment: ONS Experimental Statistics (Apr 2015 to Mar 2016): aged 16+ years Claimants: claimant count (Mar 2016): 16-64 years

BENEFIT PROPORTIONS/RATES AND UNEMPLOYMENT: MARCH The table below shows the proportions and rates for the 14 major employment centres outside of London. rd

Leeds is the 3

th

equal lowest in terms of claimant rates and 4 lowest ILO rate. Unemployment rates and proportions in major cities (%) Claimants City Birmingham Newcastle Glasgow Bradford Nottingham Liverpool Sheffield Manchester Leicester Cardiff Leeds Kirklees Edinburgh Bristol

Proportion 4.2 2.8 3.3 2.8 3.3 3.7 2.3 3.0 2.1 2.4 2.3 2.1 1.6 1.7

ILO Unemp Rate

Rate

6.2 3.8 4.5 3.7 4.7 5.5 3.3 4.3 2.9 3.2 2.8 2.8 2.0 2.1

9.6 8.7 8.5 8.2 7.9 7.8 7.6 7.3 7.2 6.7 6.3 6.1 5.5 5.4

• Claimant proportion: claimants divided by population of working age • Claimant rate: claimants divided by residents economically active • Unemployment rate: ILO unemployed divided by residents economically active – ONS experimental statistics

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THE REAL LEVEL OF UNEMPLOYMENT (2012) Work undertaken by Beatty/Fothergill/Gore at the Centre for Regional Economic and Social Research at Sheffield Hallam University (‘The Real Level of Unemployment 2012 ’) provides a new assessment of the scale of unemployment across Britain. It considers not only the people included in the official ‘claimant count’ but also the very large numbers directed onto other benefits or out of the benefit system altogether. Since there is no requirement for incapacity benefit claimants to look for work and because many think they would not find suitable work, most claimants do not look for work. They therefore fail one of the ILO unemployment tests and drop out of ILO unemployment figures as well as the claimant count. The hidden unemployed on incapacity benefits are those who might reasonably be expected to have been in work in a fully-employed economy.

Unemployment in Major Cities (April 2012)

The Leeds claimant count was 25,030, while the ‘real’ level of unemployment is estimated at 41,400. Hidden unemployment Claimant count Birmingham Glasgow Liverpool Manchester Leeds Bradford Sheffield Bristol Nottingham Kirklees Leicester Edinburgh Cardiff Newcastle

50,240 24,740 21,720 20,260 25,030 19,430 17,890 12,890 14,510 12,690 13,060 11,770 10,930 9,800

Additional LFS

Diverted to Incapacity benefits 24,500 27,800 19,400 13,100 4,600 9,500 6,900 7,200 6,100 6,700 6,900 5,300 4,600 3,700

11,100 9,100 8,400 9,800 11,800 7,000 8,100 7,500 5,000 5,700 4,700 7,600 6,200 6,400

Real unemployment

85,900 61,600 49,600 43,200 41,400 36,000 32,800 27,600 25,600 25,100 24,800 24,700 21,700 19,900

Real Unemployment: see http://www.shu.ac.uk/_assets/pdf/the-real-level-of-unemployment2012.pdf

Benefit Claimant and Real Unemployment Proportions th

th

Although Leeds is the 5 largest in terms of number of ‘real’ unemployed, it is 13 in terms of ‘real’ unemployment rates. Claimants

Real Unemp

% of working age Liverpool Glasgow Birmingham Manchester Leicester Nottingham Bradford Newcastle Kirklees Produced by Economic Policy Team Cardiff Leeds City Council | [email protected] Bristol Sheffield Leeds Edinburgh

7.1 6.0 7.5 5.6 6.3 6.5 5.9 4.8 4.8 4.6 4.1 4.8 4.5 3.4

16.1 14.9 12.8 12.0 11.9 11.5 11.0 9.7 9.5 9.2 8.8 8.7 7.5 7.2

CURRENT APS UNEMPLOYMENT RATES: LEEDS, YORKSHIRE AND HUMBER, GB The chart below shows unemployment rates from the Annual Population Survey (former Labour Force Survey).

People aged 16+

• •

Between 1997 and 2005, all three areas have seen a continuous decline in unemployment rates, with Leeds lower than the region or GB between 1997 and 2005. From 2007 the Leeds rate has been above the GB and the regional rate., but significantly lower than the Core Cities as a whole.

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CLAIMANT RATES AND PROPORTIONS: LEEDS, THE REGION AND GB The graphs below show how closely Leeds has mirrored the region over the last decade.

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CURRENT LEEDS CLAIMANT COUNT The claimant count: • started rising in mid-2008, rising to nearly 25,600 in February 2013. • It fell back to 11,395 in August 2016.

The graph below shows: • a steady increase in the number of the female claimants up to February 2013, with a decline thereafter. • For males the numbers decreased until June 2008, thereafter increasing until February 2010. The numbers have declined significantly during 2014 and 2015.

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Unemployment benefit claimants by ward and other areas: August 2016

Adel & Wharfedale Alwoodley Ardsley Robin Hood Armley Beeston & Holbeck Bramley & Stanningley Burmantofts & RH Calverley & Farsley Chapel Allerton City & Hunslet Cross Gates & Whinmoor Farnley & Wortley Garforth & Swillington Gipton & Harehills Guiseley & Rawdon Harewood Headingley Horsforth Hyde Park & Woodhouse Killingbeck & Seacroft Kippax & Methley Kirkstall Middleton Park Moortown Morley North Morley South Otley & Yeadon Pudsey Rothwell Roundhay Temple Newsam Weetwood Wetherby Leeds IoD2015

2015

No

Prop

No

Prop

Prop Change

150 180 155 755 685 385 1,055 160 605 845 245 405 105 1,015 95 45 210 110 555 510 140 480 625 190 190 230 125 260 155 205 260 225 50

1.3 1.3 1.1 4.2 4.7 2.7 6.2 1.1 3.7 2.9 1.8 2.6 0.9 5.7 0.7 0.4 1.1 0.8 2.5 3.4 1.1 2.9 3.6 1.3 1.3 1.6 0.9 1.8 1.2 1.4 2.0 1.5 0.4

140 210 180 825 740 415 1,145 175 685 910 270 460 105 1,150 95 50 210 100 620 600 150 470 715 190 185 270 150 265 185 230 315 245 55

1.2 1.5 1.2 4.6 5.1 2.9 6.8 1.2 4.2 3.1 2.0 2.9 0.9 6.5 0.7 0.5 1.1 0.8 2.7 4.0 1.2 2.9 4.2 1.3 1.3 1.9 1.1 1.9 1.5 1.6 2.4 1.6 0.5

0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.4 -0.4 -0.2 -0.6 -0.1 -0.5 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.8 -0.1 -0.2 -0.6 -0.1 -0.6 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 -0.3 -0.2 -0.4 -0.1 -0.1

11,395 3,950

2.3 4.7

12,510 4,435

2.5 5.3

-0.2 -0.6

Bradford 9,355 2.8 10,000 3.0 Calderdale 2,670 2.0 2,770 2.1 Kirklees 5,750 2.1 5,995 2.2 Wakefield 3,895 1.9 4,435 2.1 West Yorkshire 33,075 2.3 35,700 2.5 Y&H 74,535 2.2 79,900 2.4 GB 726,790 1.8 740,690 1.9 Core cities 110,400 3.0 113,325 3.1 Leeds city region 38,990 2.0 42,195 2.2 NB. IoD2015: Armley, Burmantofts & Richmond Hill, Gipton and Harehills, Killingbeck and Seacroft and MIddleton Park wards

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-0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2

YOUTH UNEMPLOYMENT The graph below shows youth unemployment rates at June each year from the Annual Population Survey. Note: The Leeds data is not from the experimental statistics reported earlier.

Because of sample sizes the Leeds figures are somewhat erratic, whilst the others are stable. Basically the Leeds figures are +/- 6%, whilst the Leeds City Region are +/- 3%, Y&H figures are +/-2% , GB 0.5% and Core Cities +/- 2.5%..

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KEY WORKING AGE BENEFITS A proxy for worklessness is available from the DWP 100% statistics on “Key Working Age Benefits”. This includes those claiming any of: Job Seekers Allowance; Employment & Support Allowance and Incapacity Benefits; other income related benefits. The tables below cover total worklessness for those of working age; those aged under 25 and 60-64; and those claiming less than a year and over 5 years. TOTAL WORKLESSNESS The chart below shows the percentage of the working age population on KWA benefits



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As shown below: • Three locations had over 50,000 people claiming workless related benefits in 2015; Birmingham with 94,730; Glasgow with 67,580 and Leeds with 51,310 nd • Leeds had the 2 equal lowest rate of worklessness in 2015 th • Leeds had the 4 lowest percentage decrease in claimants over the last 6 years.

Birmingham Glasgow Leeds Liverpool Manchester Sheffield Bradford Bristol Nottingham Edinburgh Kirklees Cardiff Leicester Newcastle

Nov 2009 Nov 2014 No Rate No Rate 127,990 19 102,710 15 89,450 22 73,530 18 65,750 13 54,790 11 68,490 22 54,610 17 64,140 19 51,090 14 48,620 14 40,390 11 48,870 15 42,400 13 39,410 14 31,740 11 36,700 18 30,220 14 36,530 11 29,630 9 35,110 13 28,760 11 32,190 14 27,460 11 35,860 17 26,680 12 29,380 16 24,230 12

Nov 2015 2009-15 2014-15 No Rate % change 94,730 13 -26 -8 67,580 16 -24 -8 51,310 10 -22 -6 48,090 15 -30 -12 46,650 12 -29 -11 38,980 11 -20 -3 38,930 12 -20 -8 29,700 10 -25 -6 28,590 13 -22 -5 26,820 8 -27 -9 26,370 10 -25 -8 25,830 11 -20 -6 25,080 11 -30 -6 22,310 11 -24 -8

WORKLESSNESS BY AGE – AUGUST 2015 • •

In Leeds 14% of those claiming worklessness related benefits were under 25 years old - the equal highest proportion. The claimant rate for Leeds for the under-25s was the 8th equal lowest Working Age

Glasgow Liverpool Birmingham Manchester Nottingham Bradford Leicester Newcastle Cardiff Sheffield Kirklees Bristol Leeds Edinburgh

Under 25

No

Rate

No

Rate

70,390 49,500 98,200 46,870 29,480 39,960 25,890 22,780 26,670 39,380 27,200 30,510 52,650 27,310

17 15 14 13 13 12 11 11 11 11 10 10 10 8

6,710 4,800 12,800 5,130 4,430 5,760 3,430 2,990 3,720 5,820 3,690 3,730 7,540 2,640

1.6 1.5 1.8 1.4 2.0 1.8 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.5 0.8

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Aged 60-64 % under 25 10 10 13 11 15 14 13 13 14 15 14 12 14 15

No

Rate

7,540 5,610 8,840 4,650 2,540 4,260 2,870 2,420 2,500 3,680 2,960 2,720 5,120 2,720

1.8 1.7 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.0 1.0 1.1 0.9 1.0 0.8

% 60-64 11 11 9 10 9 11 11 11 9 9 11 9 10 10

WORKLESSNESS BY DURATION – AUGUST 2015 • •

Leeds had the highest percentage of people claiming for less than 1 year – at 33% of the total. It had the 2nd lowest percentage claiming for five or more years. Total No Rate

Glasgow Liverpool Birmingham Manchester Nottingham Bradford Leicester Newcastle Cardiff Sheffield Bristol Kirklees Leeds Edinburgh

70,390 49,500 98,200 46,870 29,480 39,960 25,890 22,780 26,670 39,380 30,510 27,200 52,650 27,310

17 15 14 13 13 12 11 11 11 11 10 10 10 8

Up to 6 mths No Rate 11,980 7,300 17,560 7,520 6,070 8,710 5,590 4,380 5,730 8,090 5,700 5,510 11,930 4,580

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2.9 2.3 2.5 2.0 2.8 2.6 2.5 2.2 2.4 2.2 1.9 2.0 2.4 1.3

6m -1yr No Rate 6,480 3,950 11,540 4,600 3,270 4,170 2,640 2,490 2,770 3,870 2,860 2,860 5,700 2,380

1.5 1.2 1.6 1.3 1.5 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 0.7

5+ years No Rate 32,790 23,520 35,120 20,810 11,090 14,770 9,920 9,230 10,640 15,960 13,270 10,900 19,360 12,860

7.8 7.3 5.0 5.7 5.1 4.5 4.4 4.7 4.4 4.3 4.4 4.0 3.8 3.7

<1 yr 5+ % of total 26 23 30 26 32 32 32 30 32 30 28 31 33 25

47 48 36 44 38 37 38 41 40 41 43 40 37 47

WORKLESS HOUSEHOLDS An annual analysis from the Annual Population Survey provides estimates by economic status of: • Number of households with at least one person aged 16 to 64 • Number of children under 16 in households with at least one person aged 16 to 64 Working households: contains at least one person aged 16 to 64, where all individuals aged 16 and over are in employment Mixed household: contains at least one person aged 16 to 64, where at least one person aged 16 and over is in employment and at least one other is either unemployed or inactive Workless household: contains at least one person aged 16 to 64, where no-one aged 16 or over is in employment As the table below shows: • •

56% of households are working, while 20% are workless. Leeds has the 3rd highest percentage of working households, but is mid-table for workless households. % of households which are:

Working

Mixed

GB 55 29 Core Cities 50 28 Y&H 55 27 LCR 56 27 WY 55 27 Liverpool 41 28 Glasgow 50 23 Manchester 48 28 Hull 50 26 Birmingham 44 33 Nottingham 48 29 Newcastle 49 28 Leeds 56 24 Leicester 44 38 Wakefield 56 26 Sheffield 55 27 Bradford 50 32 Kirklees 54 29 Cardiff 54 30 Bristol 60 24 Edinburgh 59 25 Source: Annual Population Survey – Jan-Dec 2014

Workless 16 22 18 17 18 30 27 24 24 23 23 23 20 19 18 18 18 17 17 16 16

As the table below shows, • 51% of children live in working households, while 16% of children live in workless households • Leeds was mid-table for both categories

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% of children who are in households which are:

Working

Mixed

Workless

Core Cities

46

33

21

Y&H

52

31

17

LCR

52

33

15

WY

49

36

16

Liverpool

44

25

31

Hull

41

31

29

Nottingham

43

31

26

Manchester

40

37

22

Birmingham

36

42

22

Glasgow

46

34

20

Leeds

51

29

19

Sheffield

55

26

19

Bradford

37

45

18

Cardiff

53

31

16

Bristol

55

29

16

Leicester

36

48

15

Wakefield

60

27

13

Newcastle

52

36

13

Kirklees

49

41

10

Edinburgh

62

29

9

GB

53

33

Source: Annual Population Survey – Jan-Dec 2014

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13

VACANCIES The analysis below is based on two sources: •



To November 2012: the number of live unfilled vacancies handled by Jobcentre Plus. Coverage relates to vacancies notified to Jobcentre Plus and its share of total vacancies varies over time, according to the occupation of the vacancy and industry of the employer, and by local area. This series has now been discontinued. From December 2012: New Positions from Universal Jobmatch has replaced Notified Vacancies; New Jobs has replaced Live Unfilled. The definitions are different. This data set has now been discontinued because of data quality.

The chart below shows the numbers of vacancies in Leeds.

JobCentre Vacancies in Leeds Notified

Unfilled

16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 May-13

Jan-13

Sep-12

May-12

Jan-12

Sep-11

May-11

Jan-11

Sep-10

May-10

Jan-10

Sep-09

May-09

Jan-09

Sep-08

May-08

Jan-08

Sep-07

May-07

Jan-07

See note at the top of the page The number of claimants per vacancy rose from 3 in Autumn 2008 to 10 people chasing every job by January 2010. As the economy picks up in 2010 this figure has steadily increased.

JSA Claimants per unfilled JobCentre vacancy in Leeds 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 May-13

Jan-13

Sep-12

May-12

Jan-12

May-11

Sep-11

Jan-11

Sep-10

May-10

Jan-10

Sep-09

May-09

Jan-09

May-08

Sep-08

Jan-08

Sep-07

May-07

Jan-07

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SOUGHT OCCUPATION AND VACANCIES The table below, from the Jobcentre Plus series, gives a simple analysis of the mismatch between the occupation that claimants are looking for and the vacancies available. It covers: • The occupation being sought by the claimants • The unfilled vacancies available It shows the mismatch that has developed over the last five years, particularly in elementary, admin and sales. Rather surprisingly is the increase for managers, which as pointed out earlier, were expected to show significant growth in both the last decade and the next. February SOC 2000

Claimants Sought occupation 2007

1 : Managers and Senior Officials 2 : Professional 3 : Associate Prof and Technical 4 : Administrative and Secretarial 5 : Skilled Trades 6 : Personal Services 7 : Sales and Customer Service 8 : Operatives 9 : Elementary 0 : Uknown Total

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785 280 630 955 1,350 565 1,440 1,020 5,610 40 12,675

2012 1,050 585 1,150 1,950 2,290 1,400 5,270 1,690 8,645 385 24,415

Live Unfilled Vacancies 2007

2012

Claimants per vacancy 2007

2012

276 541 616 887 639 582 2,003 899 1,338

190 153 750 207 292 1,153 787 567 852

3 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 4

6 4 2 9 8 1 7 3 10

7,781

4,951

2

5

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